Welcome to the latest Weekly Real Estate Market Recap from Brazoban.com! This week, we’re diving into the real estate trends shaping both the national market and North Carolina’s dynamic housing landscape as of June 16, 2025. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or investor, our insights will help you navigate the evolving market.
National Market: High Rates and Inventory Surge
Nationally, mortgage rates remain elevated, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.87% and the 15-year fixed at 6.09% as of early June. Experts predict rates will hover between 6.5% and 6.8% through 2025, driven by economic uncertainties, including President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, which have delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts to at least September 2025.
Housing inventory has hit a five-year high, with nearly $700 billion in homes listed, but buyer demand is weak, with sales in some regions at Great Recession lows. Over 61% of U.S. counties saw month-over-month home value declines in April 2025, signaling a shift toward a buyer-friendly market in certain areas. Redfin reports a 34% gap between sellers (1.94 million listings) and buyers (1.45 million), the largest in over a decade.
North Carolina: Competitive Yet Cooling
In North Carolina, the housing market remains competitive but shows signs of cooling. Zillow forecasts home values in Raleigh and Asheville could drop by up to 3% over the next year, with the state’s median home value at $336,483 in April 2025. A housing shortage—projected at 760,000 units by 2029—continues to drive competition, particularly in high-growth areas like the Research Triangle.
- Raleigh and Research Triangle: Booming job growth and population influx fuel demand, but high competition frustrates buyers. Wealthy renters earning over $185,000 annually are increasingly opting for rentals, boosting the rental market.
- Charlotte: Luxury homes are breaking records, with an $8.4 million estate sale in 2025, but affordability challenges persist, with median asking prices at $408,663.
- Coastal Areas: Severe thunderstorms in Eastern North Carolina (Carteret, Craven, Onslow counties) and ongoing coastal erosion in the Outer Banks, where homes have collapsed into the ocean, raise concerns about property damage and rising insurance costs. Median list prices in the Outer Banks are down 8% year-over-year as inventory climbs.
Regulatory Changes Reshaping North Carolina’s Market
- Wholesaling Crackdown: A bill in the North Carolina General Assembly, following South Carolina’s lead, will require real estate wholesalers to obtain licenses, aiming to curb predatory practices that exploit distressed homeowners.
- Predatory Contract Relief: Attorney General Jeff Jackson has barred Stone Brook Partners and MV Realty’s CEO from operating in North Carolina, freeing homeowners from deceptive long-term agreements that hindered property sales.
- Disclosure Requirements: The Residential Property Disclosure Act mandates transparency for material facts, including mineral rights and lead-based paint for pre-1978 homes, reinforcing the state’s “caveat Emptor” approach.
Investor and Affordability Challenges
Nationally, small investors accounted for 59% of investor purchases in 2024, but high interest rates and falling rents are prompting sales, boosting listings in five states. In North Carolina, private-equity firms own one in five rentals (132,645 apartments), raising rents and affordability concerns, with 47% of Wake County renters facing financial strain. Institutional investors purchased 7% of North Carolina homes last year, down from 7.4% in 2023.
The failure of House Bill 765, a pro-housing reform, leaves local governments with unchecked powers to obstruct development, exacerbating the housing shortage. However, North Carolina’s shift to a 1-4 Family Code allows for lower-cost triplexes and quads, potentially easing supply constraints.
Economic Drivers and Risks
- National: Rising consumer debt and insurance premiums (21% increase in California, 27% in Louisiana) add pressure, though stricter lending standards reduce crash risks. Trump’s tariff policies contribute to economic uncertainty, chilling buyer activity.
- North Carolina: A $4.7 billion JetZero plant will create 14,500 jobs, boosting housing demand. First-time buyer programs, like the NC Home Advantage Mortgage, offer down payment assistance, supporting affordability. However, climate risks, including coastal erosion and storm damage, could increase insurance costs and default rates in vulnerable areas.
Social Media Sentiment
On X, national sentiment highlights concerns about excess inventory, with analysts predicting price drops in over half the country. In North Carolina, users note Research Triangle prices cooling from $1 million during the COVID frenzy to $600,000–$700,000, reflecting a buyer-friendly shift. Others emphasize the housing shortage’s economic impact, urging regulatory reform.
What’s Next for the Market?
Nationally, high rates and growing inventory suggest a cooling market, with opportunities for buyers in regions with surplus listings. In North Carolina, competitive markets like Raleigh and Charlotte will persist, but cooling prices in Raleigh and Asheville, combined with regulatory changes, create opportunities for strategic buyers. Sellers should price competitively, while investors should monitor high-growth areas like the Research Triangle and navigate new wholesaling rules.
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References and Sources
- National mortgage rates and tariff impacts: Newsweek, June 2025.
- U.S. inventory and demand trends: Redfin, May 2025.
- North Carolina home value forecasts: Charlotte Observer, May 2025.
- Raleigh and rental trends: Business Insider, June 2025.
- Charlotte luxury sales: Charlotte Observer, June 2025.
- Coastal risks and insurance: News & Observer, June 2025; X post by @texasrunnerDFW, March 2025.
- Wholesaling regulation: Carolina Journal, May 2025.
- Predatory contract relief: NCDOJ, June 2025.
- Disclosure requirements: Houzeo, June 2025.
- Private-equity ownership: News & Observer, April 2025.
- Housing reform failure: X posts by @ForwardCarolina and @aaron_lubeck, June 2025.
- Family Code reform: X post by @aaron_lubeck, January 2025.
- Job growth and buyer programs: Fortune, June 2025.
- Investor trends: Newsweek, May 2025.
- Social media sentiment: X posts by @valuedrift and @NCChamber, June 2025.
